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Predictions for e-Learning

This page provides links to some predictions about what could happen in the e-learning space over the next few years.

Articles in date order, most recent first.

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Future Directions in eLearning Research Report 2006

"This is our second annual report on the subject of future directions in e-Learning. As we did last year, the Guild Research Committee asked Guild members to take a close look at the e-Learning programs and initiatives in their organizations and report to us on what they expect to see in these activities in the next twelve months. More than 650 industry professionals responded to this survey. Once again, we found that e-Learning remains a rapidly growing practice with a bright future in the vast majority of our respondents' organizations - indeed, 75 believe the term "e-Learning" serves a useful purpose and is here to stay for the foreseeable future."  eLearning Guild

Added: 21 April 2006
Reviewer's Note:
Although this report shows levels of increased activity in key practice areas consistent with the results of last year's survey, we are seeing even greater focus on both content quality and rapid development, as well as development of the resources that make better, faster e-Learning possible.

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2006 Horizon Report

"The 2006 Horizon Report highlights six technologies that the underlying research suggests will become very important to higher education over the next one to five years." NMC, 2006

Added: 24 August 2006
Reviewer's Note:
Predictions for 2006

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Predictions for 2006

"As eLearn Magazine nears its fifth anniversary, we have seen the world of online learning change in many significant ways. Who, in 2002, envisioned the popularity of podcasts, wikis, and blogs? Yet for all the emphasis on how content can be created and disseminated, there has been too little focus on the quality of the learning experience. That's why my prediction for 2006 is that people will realize that technology, no matter how innovative, is just an enabler. New technologies only succeed if they help people learn." Lisa Neal, eLearn Magazine, January 2006

Added: 21 January 2006
Reviewer's Note:
Read the full article for more predictions from some of the most thoughtful and opinionated people in the e-learning field.

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The state of the e-learning marketplace

"As a fragmented e-learning market continues to mature, vendors must merge or partner with each other to compete. And customers are reaping the benefits." Sarah Boehle,  Training Magazine, January 2006

Added: 18 January 2006
Reviewer's Note:
New Media Predictions 2006: What Will The Web Future Bring?

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New Media Predictions 2006: What Will The Web Future Bring?

"If you stop looking for a second at the hundreds of interesting new tools and events happening online, what are the key trends you see?  Where among the new emerging online media, should you be looking next when trying to understand where to invest your future energies and money?" Robin Good, 12 December 2005

Added: 12 December 2005
Reviewer's Note:
Here some of his personal predictions for what is happening next and his preferred key areas where you should keep your sight focused

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2005 Horizon Report

"The 2005 Horizon Report highlights six technologies that the underlying research suggests will become very important to higher education over the next one to five years. A central focus of the discussion of each technology is its relevance for teaching, learning, and creative expression. Live weblinks to example applications are provided in each section, as well as to additional readings." NMC, August 2005

Added: 24 August 2005
Reviewer's Note:
Directions from 2004, Trends for 2005

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Directions from 2004, Trends for 2005

"Every year at about this time, pundits, experts and others with strong opinions share their views on what they expect to be major IT themes during the course of the year to come." Graeme Daniel, wwwtools, 11 January 2005

Added: 11 January 2005
Reviewer's Note:
"In this edition of WWWTools for Education, we present some of these prognoses for comparison and contrast, with particular emphasis on trends in educational technology, and a selection of references to those elements which should figure large in 2005."

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Predictions for 2005

"Where will e-learning take us in 2005? How will learning be impacted by the use of portable devices, blogs, and search engines? Will we better understand and have metrics for quality e-learning? Read on for predictions from some of the most thoughtful and opinionated people in the e-learning field." elearn magazine, January 2005

Added: 6 January 2005
Reviewer's Note:
Learning and training: the year ahead

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Learning and training: the year ahead

By Ron Zamir, L & T Innovations, 5 January 2004

Added: 6 January 2005
Reviewer's Note:
Here are three trends that have evolved over the past few year for our Allen Communication, and the industry as a whole

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2005: The year of the digital campus

"Thanks to some innovative technology trends, the educational landscape is transforming into a "digital campus" - an information-rich and seamlessly connected environment that brings the world to a student's fingertips and lets the student move freely about the globe. This digital campus functions through the integration of a multiplicity of technologies in a unified network environment - a seamless, secure, collaborative environment for learning, achievement and administration that is available to everyone. The following are some of the benefits institutions can expect once they decide to go digital in 2005." Kim Jones,  THE Journal, December 2004

Added: 27 December 2004
Reviewer's Note:
Top ten trends for 2005

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Top ten trends for 2005

"we've delved into a wide range of nascent trends in everything from biotechnology to semiconductors that could shake up the world next year. We've also tried to look at this year's trends - like Internet telephony - and find the surprising ways in which they'll be implemented. We looked for technologies with innovative capabilities and the potential to redefine not only the way we do things, but how we think about them. For example, the ability of voice-over-IP to destroy today's concept of distance. Of course, we like to think we've attacked these trends with the skepticism that's always been part of the Red Herring tradition." Red Herring, 13 December 2004

Added: 27 December 2004
Reviewer's Note:
Not all e-learning related, but interesting nevertheless

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Ten technologies that are going to change the way we learn

"Here are the ten key technologies I see making the major difference in how we will be learning in the future"  Robin Good, 21 November 2004

Added: 22 November 2004
Reviewer's Note:
From classrooms to learning environments: A midrange projection of e-learning technologies

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From classrooms to learning environments: A midrange projection of e-learning technologies

"The introduction of information and communications technologies is also in the process of passing through two stages. The first stage, which we have very nearly reached, is what might be thought of as the electronic classroom. The physical environment in which teaching and learning occurs has been replaced with an electronic classroom, but the process of teaching is very much the same. In the second phase, however, we will begin to use technology in new ways, to advance beyond what was possible in the classroom."  Stephen Downes, Stephen's Web, 10 June 2004

Added: 12 June 2004
Reviewer's Note:
As Stephen points out: "If there is an over-riding theme in this discussion, both in the discussion of the changes in technology that will occur over the next decade, and the challenges that arise from such changes, it is this: that the world of learning will become more integrated with the other parts of our lives than ever before."

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Predictions for 2004

"E-Learning visionaries look to the future" Lisa Neal, eLearn Magazine

Added: 31 January 2004
Reviewer's Note:
NMC Horizon Project

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NMC Horizon Project

"The Horizon Project, the centerpiece of the NMC's Emerging Technology Initiative, is an ongoing effort of the NMC intended to bring a focus emerging technologies with potential to advance teaching, learning, and creative expression in higher education."  nmc

Added: 30 January 2004
Reviewer's Note:
Checkout Technologies in use today (2002), Technologies most likely 1-2 years out and Technologies most likely 3-5 years out

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The next big thing?

"IT IS increasingly painful to watch Carly Fiorina, the boss of Hewlett-Packard (HP, as she tries to explain to yet another conference audience what her new grand vision of "adaptive" information technology is about. It has something to do with "Darwinian reference architectures", she suggests, and also with "modularising" and "integrating", as well as with lots of "enabling" and "processes". IBM, HP's arch rival, is trying even harder, with a marketing splurge for what it calls "on-demand computing". Microsoft's Bill Gates talks of "seamless computing". Other vendors prefer "ubiquitous", "autonomous" or "utility" computing. Forrester Research, a consultancy, likes "organic". Gartner, a rival, opts for "real-time"."  Economist Magazine, January 2004

Added: 19 January 2004
Reviewer's Note:
Themes and trends for 2004

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Themes and trends for 2004

"Every January,  gurus and pundits offer their best guesses on likely themes, trends, developments and scenarios in the realm of ICTs and Education for the coming year. As well as providing interesting opportunities for comparison and contrast, a review of these also allows the rest of us to offer a few personal hints on directions for 2004."  Graeme Daniel, wwwtools for education, 12 January 2004

Added: 11 January 2004
Reviewer's Note:
A comprehensive list of predictions for 2004

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What will 2004 bring

"No self-respecting columnist could pass up the opportunity to use a January issue to pontificate about the year ahead, and I'm no different. But as I gaze into my crystal ball, I see a lot of the same themes now that I did a year ago. That's probably a good thing given the weak market, lack of vendor R&D spending and continued state of buyer confusion. But none-the-less here is a briefing that will get you ready for the year ahead, or at the very least, will make you popular around the water cooler conversation." Kevin Kruse, e-learningguru.com, January 2004

Added: 7 January 2004
Reviewer's Note:
Predictions: E-Learning: Think customizable simulations that can be available on demand

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Predictions: E-Learning: Think customizable simulations that can be available on demand

"IT'S THAT TIME of year again. IT wish lists are penned, resolutions are made and predictions for what's ahead in 2004 are asserted. The past year has brought many changes and innovations to IT - some completely remarkable and others quickly forgettable. So, it is always with a bit of skepticism that we read about what the experts reportedly see in their crystal balls for the upcoming year. However, when it comes to the e-learning industry, no one can deny the important strides that were made in 2003. Advancements standards specifications and subsequent adoption have led to major increases in the extensibility, interoperability and scalability of e-learning technologies. Tools are easier to use, learning management systems (LMSs) are in place and catalog vendors have consolidated to just a few players" darwin Magazine

Added: 5 January 2004
Reviewer's Note:
Top 5 e-learning predictions for 2004

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2004: The turning point

"In what follows I base my projections not on stock prices, sales trends or focus group analysis. I base it on what I think - on what I feel, in the classic sense of the Idoru - is driving the hearts of those who will make the final decisions on the future of the internet, those who use it." Stephen Downes, 30 December 2003

Added: 31 December 2003
Reviewer's Note:
What's in store for 2004

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What's in store for 2004

"Today, organizations face far greater challenges than ever before: a tough, rapidly changing labor market; a dearth of talent as well as obstacles to keeping existing employees productive; challenges in adequately training and developing workers; soaring health-care costs and the ongoing task of making human resources smarter, more relevant and more meaningful. The issues for the new year include a changing labor market, dwindling talent, knowledge drains and heightened demand for workforce-management metrics." Samuel Greengard, Workforce Management, December 2003

Added: 20 December 2003
Reviewer's Note:
"Any organization that isn't worried about the state of the workplace should be," one expert says" 

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What to look for in '04

"The most striking thing about the current trends in technology, as this issue will catalog in detail, is that the 'next big thing' doesn't leap from the pages, at least not as a product. That's not to say that there aren't some really cool developments in technology gadgets, some of which might well enhance teaching and learning. But the biggest trend isn't in gadget-land. It's in the thinking behind software and hardware development that the developers are adopting."  Syllabus Magazine, December 2003

Added: 18 December 2003
Reviewer's Note:
Hot stuff - want to know what's hot for 2004

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Hot stuff - want to know what's hot for 2004

"While much about the future will always be uncertain, one thing is crystal clear: There's still plenty of money to be made by smart entrepreneurs with a knack for predicting what's next. And even if you don't have a nose for what's new, our annual predictions for the hottest business ideas can help. We've done the research to help give you a clearer picture of what's in store for 2004...and beyond."  Entrepreneur Magazine, December 2003

Added: 18 December 2003
Reviewer's Note:
Online Learning appears as one of the hot hits for 2004

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E-Learning trends 2003

"In October 2001, Learning Circuits published its first ever e-learning survey. This year we asked readers the same questions to gage the impact that technology developments, supplier consolidations, and economy have had on e-learning efforts. The 2003 Survey was sent to subscribers of LC Express in October 2003, and received 272 responses. Here's a breakdown of responses."  Learning Circuits, November 2003

Added: 21 November 2003
Reviewer's Note:
Web Essay

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Web Essay

"What is the next great training movement? What top training trends will have staying power? Where is the industry headed and what workforce development initiatives and methods will get it there? There are lots of ideas and even a fair amount of novelty about such broad trends as knowledge management, powered performance learning, and human capital management, but thinking about what's "great" changes the terms significantly."  Ron Dickson, Training Magazine, June 2003

Added: 2 June 2003
Reviewer's Note:
Some thoughts by a training professional about how our industry will change.

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E-Learning Trends Today and Beyond

"New developments are occurring in e-learning training at a breakneck pace. What trends are hottest, and which will impact your business most? Find out what three leading experts have to say as they turn on their high beams and look into the future 18 to 24 months out."  Mark W Brodsky, Learning & Training Innovations Magazine, 7 May 2003

Added: 10 May 2003
Reviewer's Note:
The longer term future for e-learning

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The longer term future for e-learning

"About fifty of us participated in the April meeting of eLearning Forum this morning ... Our host, Tom Hill, is Program Manager, Advanced Learning Technologies, Hewlett Packard Education & Training Center, NonStop Enterprise Division ... Tom explained that our topic is the future of eLearning, but not the close-in future one can predict through extropolation so much as the future five years from now when things will be really different."

Added: 26 April 2003
Reviewer's Note:
These are notes from a recent eLearning Forum meeting where a number of long time e-learning practitioners and analysts discussed the future of e-learning 

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From Demo: 10 technologies to watch

"Out here amid the cliffs and crags not far from Phoenix, a few dozen companies gather each year to show off the most promising new technology.  Of the 60 companies invited, I picked 10 I think are poised to change the way we interact with technology in the next three years or so -- either because their product itself was so impressive, or because their idea is sure to inspire others in the industry to pursue similar goals." Jon Fortt, The Mercury News, 20 February 2003

Added: 27 February 2003
Reviewer's Note:
Centra outlines ten trends in e-learning for 2003

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Centra outlines ten trends in e-learning for 2003

"Centra predicts a number of key trends for e-Learning in 2003"  

Added: 30 January 2003
Reviewer's Note:
Although some of these points might be obviously, they quite clearly need to reiterated

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Back to basics - e-learning in 2003

"Observers may be forgiven for thinking that the e-learning industry is in turmoil, with too many of its leading firms failing to make a profit, while their smaller colleagues struggle to stay alive at all. There have even been some cheeky comments about the quality of the e-learning that has been delivered to date. Should we be surprised? Clive Shepherd says no, given the economic climate, ridiculously over-hyped expectations and a general lack of skills in the design and delivery of e-learning. In this article, Clive argues that we have only just started to see the true potential for information and communication technology in education and training but that, by getting back to basics and doing the simple things well, we can still expect to see powerful results in the short term."  Tactix, December 2002

Added: 16 December 2002
Reviewer's Note:
E-Learning - Predictions for 2003

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E-Learning - Predictions for 2003

"We asked your for your expectations, hopes and fears for training in 2003. Sue Harley, Managing Director of IQdos, offers her predictions."  TrainingZone, 12 December 2002

Added: 13 December 2002
Reviewer's Note:
As we move towards the end of 2002, we are starting to see the predictions for 2003

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New technologies in education

"More powerful computing devices, fast networks, and new digital imaging devices are in your future." John Fleischman, Converge Magazine,  September 2002

Added: 3 October 2002
Reviewer's Note:
Gaze into the crystal ball

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Gaze into the crystal ball

"Looking into the future of e-learning is not easy. In such a quickly evolving industry, where can we find clues? In information technology, standards bodies frequently act as predictors of future trends. If we gaze into the crystal ball of the international e-learning standards community, what do we see." Robby Robson, e-learning Magazine, June 2002

Added: 7 June 2002
Reviewer's Note:
A brief look at the future in terms of standards

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Another look at leading edge e-learning technologies

"Almost a year ago, BEEP #7examined some of what were then intriguing new technologies of potential interest to e-learning planners. This month's issue takes another look at this fast-changing subject, with special attention to wireless technologies (which in one year has gone from just a few links to an entire category), ongoing sources of relevant information, and upcoming meetings and conferences."

Added: 16 April 2002
Reviewer's Note:
Transforming the way we learn: A vision for the future of ICT in schools

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Transforming the way we learn: A vision for the future of ICT in schools

"Schools have come far in recent years but are still at different stages of integrating information and communication technologies (ICT) into everyday practice. Many are well down this road, others less so but still advancing. Meanwhile the educational potential -and the accessibility -of new technologies in schools and homes continues to grow. This paper presents a practical vision of how these developments could help to transform the delivery of school age learning over the next few years. New and exciting opportunities are outlined for pupils and parents, teachers, school leaders and governors before conclusions are drawn about the practical implications for schools in the future."

Added: 17 January 2002
Reviewer's Note:
Although aimed at ICT in schools, it is interesting reading for anyone in education - and indeed in industry.  The executive summary is available to read online.  The full document is available as a PDF (32 pages)

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Classrooms of the future

"A vision of a UK school of the future making extensive use of computer technology and classroom assistants has been unveiled by the Education Secretary, Estelle Morris." BBC News, 9 January 2002

Added: 10 January 2002
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Analysis: 20 factors that will change PCs in 2002

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Analysis: 20 factors that will change PCs in 2002

"We've picked 20 trends and technologies that will have the greatest impact on personal computing for business and home use. We polled trend watchers, technologists, industry experts, and our own editors to uncover the products that will change how you work -- and possibly even how you live." Daniel Tynan, CNN, 25 December 2001

Added: 28 December 2001
Reviewer's Note:
What your PC and software look like in 2002

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The internet's way forward

"The era of the destination website is over. The time of the participation site is about to arrive. Pity those companies unlucky enough to have successful, narrowband, destination websites that provide news and information - their owners are being presented with an increasingly painful dilemma." Charles Leadbetter, ft.com, 2 December 2001

Added: 7 December 2001
Reviewer's Note:
Talking turkey - new directions for e-learning in 2002

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Talking turkey - new directions for e-learning in 2002

"This time last year we made some predictions for e-learning, We said that learning portals would be in a panic; that learning objects would be ubiquitous; that e-learners would require human support and that the demand for bespoke content would leave you struggling to find a developer with capacity. As you would expect, these suggestions were made without foreknowledge of economic downturns or terrorist attacks - otherwise they would surely have been right on target! Nevertheless, Clive Shepherd sticks his neck out again, with his review of the e-learning world in the closing months of 2001 and his fashion statements for 2002."

Added: 3 December 2001
Reviewer's Note:
An excellent view of what e-learning will look like next year.

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Where is e-learning headed?

"As e-learning technology and practices mature, expect more interactivity, greater topic coverage, and a wider range of uses." Advisor Zone, July 2001

Added: 3 August 2001
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Technology: hardware advances coming

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Technology: hardware advances coming

"John Moynahan foresees the day, just five years away, when mobile learning and other wireless applications will be standard fare. "Everything will be smaller, lighter, faster and cheaper," says Moynahan, senior vice president and chief financial officer of Xybernaut, a provider of wearable computing hardware, software, and services. "We'll see mobile learning applications make the classroom partially obsolete." He says wearable technology will tie people together remotely for learning applications." Paul Harris, Learning Circuits, July 2001

Added: 19 July 2001
Reviewer's Note:
some thoughts on mobile and "wearable" technologies

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The future of telecourses

"What changes are ahead for telecourses? Does the rise of online education threaten the future of telecourses or open up new opportunities for them? Read the transcript of a live chat with George P. Connick, the chief architect of the University of Maine System's interactive telecourse network." Chronicle of Higher Education, July 2001

Added: 18 July 2001
Reviewer's Note:
High-definition television could change telecourses and online learning

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High-definition television could change telecourses and online learning

"Within a few years, specialized telecourses that make use of high-definition television, or HDTV, will be delivered over high-speed networks like Internet2. But some institutions whose students could benefit from advanced television technology may not have the network capacity to receive the courses." Florence Olsen, Chronicle of Higher Education, 5 July 2001

Added: 7 July 2001
Reviewer's Note:

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5 Technologies you need to know

"They aren't just out of the lab. They're not untested. These emerging technologies are already paying for themselves by helping companies work smarter and more efficiently." Business 2.0, June 2001

Added: June 2001
Reviewer's Note:
Emerging technology trends in e-learning

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Emerging technology trends in e-learning

"eLearning has become a key adjunct to the business world. Organizations use it as a powerful strategy to better leverage their intellectual capital. Trends in several distinct arenas influence and shape elearning's growth." Ellen Wagner, LineZine, Fall 2000.

Added: June 2001
Reviewer's Note:

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The future of online learning

"Today, and for the last century, education has been practised in segregated buildings by carefully regimented and standardized classes of students led and instructed by teachers working essentially alone. In ten years, this model will be seen in many quarters to be obsolete"  Stephen Downes, July 1998

Added: pre-2000
Reviewer's Note:

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